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VALUE SOCCER SYSTEM (VSS)


Do you enjoy a bet on the football at the weekend and take the task of which teams to bet on very seriously? Do you have a good eye for finding a value bet? Do you have the confidence to go against the crowd and bet on a result that your friends would think was a stupid bet? Do you have the common sense to bet only when your criteria for betting have been met?

If your answer to these 4 questions is “Yes” then The Value Soccer System© is for you!

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The Value Soccer System© is the result of careful analysis of results in European soccer leagues over the past 15 years. When Team A meets Team B what is the chance of Team A winning, what is the chance of Team B winning and what chance for the draw?

If we measure the “strength” of both teams going in to the fixture we can model the likelihood of success based on examination of 15 years of data where teams with very similar profiles have met. We can then use this data to derive the correct odds for the game. Where the correct odds differ from those available at the bookmaker or on the exchanges we then have the opportunity to find value bets.

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The Value Soccer System© incorporates a downloadable ebook and Microsoft Excel based calculator. One enters into the calculator some simple information from the league statistics such as games played, goals scored and conceded, points gained, most recent form and home or away form etc and the calculator does the rest. It assigns a strength rating (that we call the VSS Rating) for each team and with this we can determine the correct odds based on examination of the historical data. After just a few minutes of data input you are left with your correct odds for the fixture.

The market prices for soccer matches are generally very good as we all know and nobody is saying that winning money from betting on football matches is easy. Far from it! It is, however, not impossible! Markets can and do over-react to “information”.

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There are, in fact, seven “Golden Areas” where markets regularly get it wrong in the pricing up of the coming game. Where the markets get it wrong we step in and bet. The approach is very similar to the way that the successful financial traders often use “contrarian” approaches to finding their own “betting edge”.

One good example of this over-reaction is the “new manager syndrome”. For some reason, teams that have appointed a new manager are often over-bet as he is seen to offer a whole new bright beginning at the club. There is no statistical support for this view but the markets, time after time, over-bet these teams. There are 6 other great examples in the ebook of where the markets over-react to situations, allowing the clever bettor to take advantage.

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The beauty of The Value Soccer System© is that it allows us to look at just the hard facts and “the points on the board” to help us make our decisions about what is or what is not a good bet rather than being dragged along by mass public opinion and media-frenzy.

If you like the idea of ignoring “the crowd”, becoming ruthlessly analytical in your betting and making your own decisions when it comes to betting, then The Value Soccer System© is for you!

Matti Elliot

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